Favorite blog posts
I’ve written about 50 blog posts on my Wordpress blog. Here are a few of my favorites:
- “So you want a graduate degree in statistics,” a series with Gregory Matthews, September 2014, (link)
- “Evaluating sports predictions against the market,” July 2017, (link)
- “Evaluating the evaluators,” April 2017, (link)
- “All win probability models are wrong: some are useful,” March 2017, (link)
- “Ref’s may respond to player aggression, too,” February 2017, (link)
- Two posts on the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference: Part I, Part II
- What’s it like to work in sports analytics?“, with Noah Davis, January 2017, (link)
- “Making and comparison of draft curves,” June 2016, (link)
- “NFL draft: where we stand”, May 2016, (link)
- “The NHL studio host was … right?”, April 2016, (link)
- “Regression or reversion? It’s probably the latter”, August 2015, (link)
Sports Illustrated/SI.com
- “The case for 3-point wins,”.April 29, 2013, w/ Matt Gagne.
- “How NFL wins compared to preseason predictions,” January, 2015. (link)
- “What 2015 stats say about Deflategate,” January, 2016 (link)
FiveThirtyEight (w/ Noah Davis)
I’ve written about a dozen articles for FiveThirtyEight: you can find them listed here
Deadspin
- “Why are statheads struggling so much with their NFL picks,” October, 2013. (link)
- “Statheads are losing their war with the spread. Here’s why,” November, 2013, w/ G. Matthews (link)
- “Do tough calls favor the home team? One explanation for Pats-Panthers,” November, 2013. (link)
- “Why those statistics about the Patriots fumbles are mostly junk,” January, 2015, w/ G. Matthews [(link)]()
- “Chart: How every team compared to Las Vegas predictions,” April, 2015. (link)
Other
- “Home court advantage and shooting,” July, 2016 (Nylon Calculus, link)
- “One soccer referee makes every decision - is that absurd?,” August, 2015 (Significance, link)
- “What statistics can tell us about Deflategate,” May, 2015. (Stats.org, link)
- “The Effect of Travel Distance on NCAA Tournament Play,” March, 2012. (Teamrankings.com, link)
- “Using Round of 64 Games to Predict Tournament Success,” March, 2012. (Teamrankings.com, link)
- “Your textbook can’t help you here: applying traditional methods to atypical data,” 2014, with Adrian Ezparza, Michael Lavine, Jenna Marquard (Change Magazine, link)
- “NHL in need of a 3-point system,” July, 2013. (Hockey News, link)